Preprints

  • T. Ayer, C. Zhang, A. Bonifonte, A. Spaulding, J. Chhatwal (2016), "Prioritizing Hepatitis C Treatment in U.S. Prisons " under second round of review, Operations Research. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2869158

    -Finalist, 2016 INFORMS Health Applications Society Best Paper Competition (Pierskalla Award)
  • T. Ayer, M. Ayvaci, Z. Karaca, J. Vlachy (2015), "The Impact of Health Information Exchanges on Emergency Department Length of Stay " under third round of review, Production and Operations Management (POM). http://ssrn.com/abstract=2968618

    -Finalist, INFORMS Conference on Information Systems and Technology (CIST) Best Paper Competition, 2015

    -Finalist, Workshop on Health IT & Economics (WHITE) Best Paper Competition, 2015
  • J. Vlachy, T. Ayer, M. Ayvaci, S. Raghunathan (2017), "The Business of Healthcare: Physician Integration in Bundled Payments," under first round of revision, M&SOM.
  • C. Zhang, T. Ayer, C. C. White III (2015), "Perishable Inventory Sharing in a Two-location System, " under first round of revision, Management Science. http://ssrn.com/abstract=3050094
  • A. Bonifonte, T. Ayer, B. Haaland, P. Wilson (2017), "Analytics in Blood Pressure Management and Control: From Data to Decisions, " Submitted.

    - Winner, 2017 IISE Health Care Student Paper competition
  • C. Zhang, A. Atasu, T. Ayer, B. Toktay(2017), "Truthful Mechanisms for Medical Surplus Product Allocation, " http://ssrn.com/abstract=3050085

    -First prize winner, 2017 MSOM Student Paper Competition
    -First prize winner, 2017 INFORMS Doing Good with Good OR Student Paper Competition
    -First prize winner, 2017 POMS College of Sustainable Operations Best Student Paper Competition
  • C. Zhang, T. Ayer, C. C. White III (2017), "2-Approximation Algorithms for Perishable Inventory Control When FIFO Is an Optimal Issuing Policy, " http://arxiv.org/abs/1605.01442

    -Finalist, 2015 INFORMS Nicholson Student Paper Competition

Published/Accepted Papers

  • T. Ayer, C. Zhang, C. Zeng, C. C. White III, V. R. Joseph (2017), " Analysis and Improvement of Blood Collection Operations, " in press, M&SOM. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3050171

    -First prize winner, 2017 M&SOM Practice-Based Research Competition

    -First prize winner, 2015 INFORMS Doing Good with Good OR Competition

    -Selected as one of the four showcase presentations by the College of Healthcare Operations (CHOM) of the Production & Operations Management Society (POMS) annual Synapse Mini-Conference, 2017

    - Here is a video about this project, produced by the American Red Cross, higlighthing the realized impact
  • Q. Chen, T. Ayer, J. Chhatwal (2017), "Optimal M-switch Surveillance Policies for Liver Cancer in Hepatitis C-Infected Population, " in press, Operations Research, https://ssrn.com/abstract=2966381

    -First Place, 2016 INFORMS Decision Analysis Society Student Paper Competition

    -Honorable mention, 2016 INFORMS Public Sector Operations Research (PSOR) Best Paper Award Competition
  • M. Cevik, T. Ayer, O. Alagoz (2016), "Analysis of Mammography Screening Policies under Resource Constraints," conditionally accepted (minor revision), Production and Operations Management (POM).
  • T. Ayer, C. Zhang, C. Zeng, C.C. White, V. Roshan Joseph, K. Lee, Z. Ozkaynak, M. Deck (2017), "American Red Cross Uses Analytics-based Methods to Improve Blood Collection Operations, " in press, Interfaces.

    - Finalist, 2017 INFORMS Franz Edelman Award
  • J. Yan, T. Ayer, P. Keskinocak, A. Caughey (2017), "Age-based Differences in the Predictive Accuracy of a One-Size-Fits-All Risk-Cutoff Value in Prenatal Integrated Screening for Down Syndrome," in press, Prenatal Diagnosis.

    - First prize winner, 2017 the Society for Health Systems graduate student paper competition
  • Q. Chen, AD Staton, T. Ayer, DA Goldstein, JL Koff, CR Flowers (2017), "Exploring the Potential Cost-Effectiveness of Precision Medicine Treatment Strategies for Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma, " in press, Leukemia and Lymphoma
  • DA Goldstein, Q. Chen, T. Ayer, KW Chan, K Virik, A Hammerman , B Brenner , CR Flowers , PS Hall (2017), "Bevacizumab for metastatic colorectal cancer: A global cost-effectiveness analysis, " The Oncologist, DOI:10.1634/theoncologist.2016-0455 [Epub ahead of print].
  • R. Aggarwal, Q. Chen, A. Goel , N. Seguy , R. Pendse , T. Ayer, J. Chhatwal (2017), "Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis C Treatment using Generic Direct-Acting Antivirals Available in India, " PLoS One, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0176503 [Epub ahead of print].
  • H. Terawaki, C. Caglayan, Q. Chen, T. Ayer, C. Flowers (2017), " “Microsimulation Modeling in Oncology”, "in press, Journal of Clinical Oncology (JCO) Clinical Cancer Informatics.
  • AR Ruiz, J Vlachy, JW Lee , EJ Gilmore , T Ayer, et al. (2017), " Association of Periodic and Rhythmic Electroencephalographic Patterns With Seizures in Critically Ill Patients, " JAMA Neurology, 74(2), 181-188.
  • M. Capan, A. Khojandi, B. Denton, KD Williams, T. Ayer, et al. (2017), " From Data to Improved Decisions: Operations Research in Healthcare Delivery, " Medical Decision Making, doi: 10.1177/0272989X17705636 [Epub ahead of print].
  • *S. Samur, B Kues, T Ayer , MS Roberts, F Kanwal, C Hur, DMS Donnell, R Chung, J. Chhatwal (2017), "Cost-Effectiveness of Pre versus Post Liver Transplant Hepatitis C Treatment with Direct-Acting Antivirals”," in press, Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology.
  • Q. Chen, T. Ayer, J. Chhatwal (2016), "Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models: A Probabilistic Approach," Medical Decision Making, doi: 0272989X16670605 [Epub ahead of print].
  • Q. Chen, N. Jain, T. Ayer, W.G. Wierda, C. R. Flowers, S. O’Brien, M. Keating, H. M. Kantarjian, J.Chhatwal (2016), "Economic Burden of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia in the Era of Oral Targeted Therapies in the United States," Journal of Clincial Oncology (JCO),35(2), 166-174.

    - This paper was covered by the Economic Times and Cancer Network
  • T. Ayer, O. Alagoz, N.K. Stout, E.S. Burnside (2015), "Heterogeneity in Women's Adherence and Its Role on Optimal Breast Cancer Screening Policies, " Management Science, 62 (5), 1339-1362.

    -First prize winner of the 2011 INFORMS Doing Good with Good OR Competition
  • J.Chhatwal, X. Wang, T. Ayer, M. Kabiri, R.T. Chung, C. Hur, J. M. Donohue, M. S. Roberts, F. Kanwal (2016), "Hepatitis C Disease Burden in the United States in the Era of Oral Direct-Acting Antivirals, "Hepatology, 64(5), 1442-1450.
  • DA Goldstein, Q. Chen, T. Ayer, D. Howard, J. Lipscomb, SS Ramalingam , FR Khuri, CR Flowers (2015), "Necitumumab in Metastatic Squamous Lung Cancer: Establishing a Value-Based Cost , " JAMA Oncology., 1(9), 1293-1300.

    - WSJ Coverage I: Lilly’s Lung-Cancer Drug Portrazza to Cost $11,430 a Month

    - WSJ Coverage II: Experimental Lilly Lung-Cancer Drug Stirs Price Debate
    - Washington Post Coverage: Cancer drugs arent just really expensive; they are a bad value
  • Chhatwal J, Samur S, Kues B, Ayer T, Roberts MS, Kanwal F, Hur C, Donnell DMS, Chung R (2016), "Optimal Timing of Hepatitis C Treatment in Patients on The Liver Transplant Waiting List, "Hepatology, 65(3), 777-788.
  • A. Rodriguez-Ruiz, J. Vlachy, JW Lee, EJ Gilmore, T Ayer, H Arif Haider, N Gaspard, J.A. Ehrenberg, B. Tolchin, T. Fantaneanu, A. Fernandez, LJ Hirsch, S. LaRoche (2016), "Periodic and Rhythmic EEG Patterns in the Critically Ill: Features Associated with Seizures, " in press, JAMA Neurology.
  • T. He, K. Li, M.S. Roberts, A. C. Spaulding, T. Ayer, J. J. Grefenstette, J. Chhatwal (2015), "Prevention of Hepatitis C By Screening and Treatment in United States Prisons, "Annals of Internal Medicine, 164(2), 84-92.

    - NPR Coverage: Treating Prisoners With Hepatitis C May Be Worth The Hefty Price
    - US News Coverage: Screening Inmates for Hepatitis C Benefits General Community
  • Q. Chen, T. Ayer, L. Nastoupil, JL Koff, L Jean, AD Staton, J. Chhatwal, CR Flowers (2015), " Population-specific prognostic models are needed to stratify outcomes for African-Americans with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma " Leukemia and Lymphoma, 57(4), 842-851.
  • G. Rust, S. Zhang,, Z. Yu, L. Caplan, S. Jain, T. Ayer, L. McRoy, R.S. Levine (2015), " Counties Eliminating Racial Disparities in Colorectal Cancer Mortality" Cancer, 122(11), 1735-1748.
  • T. Ayer (2015), " Inverse Optimization for Assessing Emerging Technologies in Breast Cancer Screening" Annals of Operations Research, 230(1), 57-85.
  • DA Goldstein, BB Ahmad, Q. Chen, T. Ayer, D. Howard, J. Lipscomb, B El-Rayes, CR Flowers (2015), " Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Regorafenib for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer" Journal of Clinical Oncology (JCO), 33(32), 3727-3732.
  • J. Yan, T. Ayer, P. Keskinocak, A. Caughey (2015), " Preference-Sensitive Risk Cutoff Values for Prenatal Integrated Screening Test for Down Syndrome" Prenatal Diagnosis, 35(7), 645-51.
  • A. Bonifonte, T. Ayer, E. Veledar, A. Clarke, P. Wilson (2015), "Antecedent Blood Pressure as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Diseases" Journal of the American Society of Hypertension, 9(9), 690-696.
  • AD Staton, JL Koff, Q Chen , T Ayer, CR Flowers (2015), "Next-generation prognostic assessment for diffuse large B cell lymphoma" Future Oncology, 20, 1-15.
  • DA Goldstein, Q. Chen, T. Ayer, D. Howard, J. Lipscomb, RD Harvey, B El-Rayes, CR Flowers (2015), " First and Second line bevacizumab in addition to chemotherapy for metastatic colorectal cancer: A US based cost-effectiveness analysis" Journal of Clinical Oncology (JCO), 33(10), 1112-8
  • Q. Chen, T. Ayer, AC Rose, LJ Nastoupil, CR Flowers (2014), " Comparing the Cost Effectiveness of Rituximab Maintenance and Radio-immunotherapy Consolidation Therapy Following First-line Chemo-Immunochemotherapies for Follicular Lymphoma" Value in Health, 18(2), 189-97.
  • DA Goldstein, Q. Chen, T. Ayer, D. Howard, J. Lipscomb, RD Harvey, B El-Rayes, CR Flowers (2014), " Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Pharmacokinetically Guided 5-Fluorouracil therapy in FOLFOX chemotherapy for metastatic colorectal cancer", Clinical Colorectal Cancer , 13(4), 219-25.
  • T. Ayer, P. Keskinocak, J. Swann (2014), "OR/MS Research in Public Health,"TutORials in Operations Research edited A. Newman and C. Smith, INFORMS
  • T. Ayer, Q. Chen, E.S. Burnside (2013), " Artificial Neural Networks in Mammography Interpretation and Diagnostic Decision Making," Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, doi:10.1155/2013/83250
  • Q. Chen, T. Ayer, L. J. Nastoupil, R. Sinha, H. Zhang, C. R. Flowers (2012), " Initial Management Strategies for Follicular Lymphoma,"International Journal of Hematologic Oncology, 1, p. 35-45
  • T. Ayer, O. Alagoz, N.K. Stout (2012), "A POMDP Approach to Personalize Mammography Screening Decisions ," Operations Research, 60, p. 1017-1018–21

    -winner of INFORMS 2009 Annual Meeting Best Poster Award.
    -second prize in MSOM 2011 Student Paper Competition
    -finalist in INFORMS 2011 Decision Analysis Society Student Paper Competition
  • O. Alagoz, T. Ayer, F.S. Erenay (2011), "Operations Research Models in Cancer Screening,"Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science edited by James J. Cochran, John Wiley & Sons, doi: 10.1002/9780470400531.eorms0597
  • T. Ayer, O. Alagoz, J. Chhatwal, J. W. Shavlik, C.E. Kahn, E.S. Burnside (2010), "Breast Cancer Risk Estimation with Artificial Neural Networks Revisited: Discrimination and Calibration," Cancer, 116, p. 3310–21

    -winner of Society of Medical Decision Making 2009 Lee Lusted Award.
  • T. Ayer, J. Chhatwal, O. Alagoz, C.E. Kahn, R.W. Woods, E.S. Burnside (2010)," Comparison of Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Network Models with an Example in Breast Cancer Risk Prediction," RadioGraphics, 30, p.13–22

  • T. Ayer, M.U.S. Ayvaci, Z.X. Liu, O. Alagoz, E.S. Burnside (2010), " Computer Aided Diagnostic Models in Breast Cancer Screening," Imaging in Medicine, 2(3), p. 313-23