Preprints

  • C. Zhang, T. Ayer, C. C. White III (2015), "2-Approximation Algorithms for Perishable Inventory Control When FIFO Is an Optimal Issuing Policy, " http://arxiv.org/abs/1605.01442

    -Finalist, 2015 INFORMS Nicholson Student Paper Competition
  • T. Ayer, C. Zhang, C. Zeng, C. C. White III, V. R. Joseph (2017), " Analysis and Improvement of Blood Collection Operations, " conditionally accepted (minor revision), M&SOM. Link to full paper

    -First prize winner, 2017 M&SOM Practice-Based Research Competition

    -First prize winner, 2015 INFORMS Doing Good with Good OR Competition

    -Selected as one of the four showcase presentations by the College of Healthcare Operations (CHOM) of the Production & Operations Management Society (POMS) annual Synapse Mini-Conference, 2017

    - Here is a video about this project, produced by the American Red Cross, higlighthing the realized impact
  • Q. Chen, T. Ayer, J. Chhatwal (2015), "Optimal Liver Cancer Surveillance in Hepatitis C-Infected Populations, " conditionally accepted (minor revision), Operations Research." https://ssrn.com/abstract=2966381

    -First Place, 2016 INFORMS Decision Analysis Society Student Paper Competition

    -Honorable mention, 2016 INFORMS Public Sector Operations Research (PSOR) Best Paper Award Competition
  • T. Ayer, C. Zhang, A. Bonifonte, A. Spaulding, J. Chhatwal (2016), "Prioritizing Hepatitis C Treatment in U.S. Prisons " under revision, Operations Research." https://ssrn.com/abstract=2869158

    -Finalist, 2016 INFORMS Health Applications Society Best Paper Competition (Pierskalla Award)
  • T. Ayer, M. Ayvaci, Z. Karaca, J. Vlachy (2015), "The Impact of Health Information Exchanges on Emergency Department Length of Stay " http://ssrn.com/abstract=2968618

    -Finalist, INFORMS Conference on Information Systems and Technology (CIST) Best Paper Competition, 2015

    -Finalist, Workshop on Health IT & Economics (WHITE) Best Paper Competition, 2015
  • M. Cevik, T. Ayer, O. Alagoz (2016), "Analysis of Mammography Screening Policies under Resource Constraints," RR, Production and Operations Management .

Published/Accepted Papers

  • Q. Chen, T. Ayer, J. Chhatwal (2016), "Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models: A Probabilistic Approach," in press, Medical Decision Making.
  • Q. Chen, N. Jain, T. Ayer, W.G. Wierda, C. R. Flowers, S. O’Brien, M. Keating, H. M. Kantarjian, J.Chhatwal (2016), "Economic Burden of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia in the Era of Oral Targeted Therapies in the United States," in press, Journal of Clincial Oncology (JCO).
  • T. Ayer, O. Alagoz, N.K. Stout, E.S. Burnside (2015), "Heterogeneity in Women's Adherence and Its Role on Optimal Breast Cancer Screening Policies, " forthcoming in Management Science.

    -First prize winner of the 2011 INFORMS Doing Good with Good OR Competition
  • J.Chhatwal, X. Wang, T. Ayer, M. Kabiri, R.T. Chung, C. Hur, J. M. Donohue, M. S. Roberts, F. Kanwal (2016), "Hepatitis C Disease Burden in the United States in the Era of Oral Direct-Acting Antivirals, " in press, Hepatology.
  • DA Goldstein, Q. Chen, T. Ayer, D. Howard, J. Lipscomb, SS Ramalingam , FR Khuri, CR Flowers (2015), "Necitumumab in Metastatic Squamous Lung Cancer: Establishing a Value-Based Cost , " in press, JAMA Oncology.

    - WSJ Coverage I: Lilly’s Lung-Cancer Drug Portrazza to Cost $11,430 a Month

    - WSJ Coverage II: Experimental Lilly Lung-Cancer Drug Stirs Price Debate
    - Washington Post Coverage: Cancer drugs arent just really expensive; they are a bad value
  • Chhatwal J, Samur S, Kues B, Ayer T, Roberts MS, Kanwal F, Hur C, Donnell DMS, Chung R (2016), "Optimal Timing of Hepatitis C Treatment in Patients on The Liver Transplant Waiting List, " in press, Hepatology.
  • A. Rodriguez-Ruiz, J. Vlachy, JW Lee, EJ Gilmore, T Ayer, H Arif Haider, N Gaspard, J.A. Ehrenberg, B. Tolchin, T. Fantaneanu, A. Fernandez, LJ Hirsch, S. LaRoche (2016), "Periodic and Rhythmic EEG Patterns in the Critically Ill: Features Associated with Seizures, " in press, JAMA Neurology.
  • T. He, K. Li, M.S. Roberts, A. C. Spaulding, T. Ayer, J. J. Grefenstette, J. Chhatwal (2015), "Prevention of Hepatitis C By Screening and Treatment in United States Prisons, " in press, Annals of Internal Medicine.

    - NPR Coverage: Treating Prisoners With Hepatitis C May Be Worth The Hefty Price
    - US News Coverage: Screening Inmates for Hepatitis C Benefits General Community
  • Q. Chen, T. Ayer, L. Nastoupil, JL Koff, L Jean, AD Staton, J. Chhatwal, CR Flowers (2015), " Population-specific prognostic models are needed to stratify outcomes for African-Americans with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma " in press, Leukemia and Lymphoma
  • G. Rust, S. Zhang,, Z. Yu, L. Caplan, S. Jain, T. Ayer, L. McRoy, R.S. Levine (2015), , " Counties Eliminating Racial Disparities in Colorectal Cancer Mortality" in press, Cancer.
  • T. Ayer (2015), " Inverse Optimization for Assessing Emerging Technologies in Breast Cancer Screening" Annals of Operations Research, 230(1), 57-85.
  • DA Goldstein, BB Ahmad, Q. Chen, T. Ayer, D. Howard, J. Lipscomb, B El-Rayes, CR Flowers (2015), " Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Regorafenib for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer" in press, Journal of Clinical Oncology (JCO)
  • J. Yan, T. Ayer, P. Keskinocak, A. Caughey (2015), " Preference-Sensitive Risk Cutoff Values for Prenatal Integrated Screening Test for Down Syndrome" Prenatal Diagnosis, 35(7), 645-51.
  • A. Bonifonte, T. Ayer, E. Veledar, A. Clarke, P. Wilson (2015), "Antecedent Blood Pressure as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Diseases" in press, Journal of the American Society of Hypertension
  • AD Staton, JL Koff, Q Chen , T Ayer, CR Flowers (2015), "Next-generation prognostic assessment for diffuse large B cell lymphoma" Future Oncology, 20, 1-15.
  • DA Goldstein, Q. Chen, T. Ayer, D. Howard, J. Lipscomb, RD Harvey, B El-Rayes, CR Flowers (2015), " First and Second line bevacizumab in addition to chemotherapy for metastatic colorectal cancer: A US based cost-effectiveness analysis" Journal of Clinical Oncology (JCO), 33(10), 1112-8
  • Q. Chen, T. Ayer, AC Rose, LJ Nastoupil, CR Flowers (2014), " Comparing the Cost Effectiveness of Rituximab Maintenance and Radio-immunotherapy Consolidation Therapy Following First-line Chemo-Immunochemotherapies for Follicular Lymphoma" Value in Health, 18(2), 189-97.
  • DA Goldstein, Q. Chen, T. Ayer, D. Howard, J. Lipscomb, RD Harvey, B El-Rayes, CR Flowers (2014), " Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Pharmacokinetically Guided 5-Fluorouracil therapy in FOLFOX chemotherapy for metastatic colorectal cancer", Clinical Colorectal Cancer , 13(4), 219-25.
  • T. Ayer, P. Keskinocak, J. Swann (2014), "OR/MS Research in Public Health,"TutORials in Operations Research edited A. Newman and C. Smith, INFORMS
  • T. Ayer, Q. Chen, E.S. Burnside (2013), " Artificial Neural Networks in Mammography Interpretation and Diagnostic Decision Making," Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, doi:10.1155/2013/83250
  • Q. Chen, T. Ayer, L. J. Nastoupil, R. Sinha, H. Zhang, C. R. Flowers (2012), " Initial Management Strategies for Follicular Lymphoma,"International Journal of Hematologic Oncology, 1, p. 35-45
  • T. Ayer, O. Alagoz, N.K. Stout (2012), "A POMDP Approach to Personalize Mammography Screening Decisions ," Operations Research, 60, p. 1017-1018–21

    -winner of INFORMS 2009 Annual Meeting Best Poster Award.
    -second prize in MSOM 2011 Student Paper Competition
    -finalist in INFORMS 2011 Decision Analysis Society Student Paper Competition
  • O. Alagoz, T. Ayer, F.S. Erenay (2011), "Operations Research Models in Cancer Screening,"Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science edited by James J. Cochran, John Wiley & Sons, doi: 10.1002/9780470400531.eorms0597
  • T. Ayer, O. Alagoz, J. Chhatwal, J. W. Shavlik, C.E. Kahn, E.S. Burnside (2010), "Breast Cancer Risk Estimation with Artificial Neural Networks Revisited: Discrimination and Calibration," Cancer, 116, p. 3310–21

    -winner of Society of Medical Decision Making 2009 Lee Lusted Award.
  • T. Ayer, J. Chhatwal, O. Alagoz, C.E. Kahn, R.W. Woods, E.S. Burnside (2010)," Comparison of Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Network Models with an Example in Breast Cancer Risk Prediction," RadioGraphics, 30, p.13–22

  • T. Ayer, M.U.S. Ayvaci, Z.X. Liu, O. Alagoz, E.S. Burnside (2010), " Computer Aided Diagnostic Models in Breast Cancer Screening," Imaging in Medicine, 2(3), p. 313-23